Core view: Methanol futures prices are quite seasonal. They tend to rise and fall in the first half of the year. In the second half of the year, the golden September and silver October will drive prices up. As November approaches, speculation on Iran's gas restrictions will be rampant. Methanol may have some big market conditions at 2509 or 2601.

Last week, part of the increase came from export news, but without official official statements, there is a certain degree of uncertainty. It will be difficult for futures prices to continue to rise. The pressure above 1900 will be relatively large.

In recent months, methanol has shown a relatively volatile pattern. Compared with the beginning of January this year, the center of gravity of futures prices has fallen somewhat. On the one hand, the import volume has returned, and on the other hand, the supply this year is relatively loose because the coal price has fallen more this year.

Methanol prices are higher than in previous years, and upstream factories have better profits. A simple calculation shows that the coal-based profit in Inner Mongolia is 700-800.

This round of spring inspections is less intense than last year, because this year's profits are good and the maintenance cycle is shortened, and there will be some pressure on the overall supply. In recent months, due to the basic implementation of spring inspections, production is expected to be reduced. This round of production reduction will fall to June and July, and production will be restored later.

From last week's data, Iran's facilities have basically returned to operation, with an operating rate of about 40%, and may gradually recover in the future. The shipping schedule between Iran and China is basically 20 days, which may put pressure in mid-April, and the height of the 05 contract is limited.

It is expected that the import volume in April will be around 850,000 tons, an increase of 200,000-300,000 tons compared with March. The basis may also be repaired.

Methanol futures prices are more seasonal, tending to rise and fall in the first half of the year, and the golden September and silver October in the second half of the year will drive prices up, and speculation on Iran's gas restrictions will be close to November. Methanol may have some big market conditions at 2509 or 2601.

Recently, the destocking of inland and factory inventories has been more obvious, and the actual pressure on methanol is not strong. The downstream is in a state of overall low profits, and the price of terminal chemical products has not rebounded much.

[Urea]

Recently, urea has fulfilled the expected agricultural high nitrogen fertilizer demand in April and May in advance. The futures market has moved faster, and the spot market has not kept up, and the futures premium is more obvious. In the future, the 05 contract basis may be repaired through spot price increases.

Last week, part of the increase came from export news, but without official official caliber, there is a certain degree of uncertainty. It will be difficult for futures prices to continue to rise, and the pressure above 1900 will be relatively large.

However, since the 05 contract is supported by agricultural demand, it is also difficult to fall sharply. The contradiction will be concentrated on the 09 contract, because the agricultural demand for the 09 contract is relatively weak.

On the other hand, the production will start in the second half of the year, and the overall production capacity pressure will be around 2 million tons, and the daily output will be close to 210,000 tons, which can be fulfilled before the 09 contract. However, it is necessary to pay attention to whether there will be an expectation of relaxing quotas when the export price is relatively low in the off-season.

In the first half of each year, the upstream inventory is destocked, so the pressure from the factory will not be particularly great. However, after June and July, the agricultural demand is off-season, and the inventory begins to accumulate.

From the perspective of profit, the profits of upstream factories are relatively good, especially the profits of some devices in Henan have gradually recovered from this year.

In recent years, the expansion of corn planting area has been relatively high, which has also driven the demand for urea, so it is difficult to bearish urea in a specific agricultural peak season. The price correlation between urea and corn is also very high. We should pay attention to the price of corn in the second half of the year. If it can be stabilized, the possibility of urea prices continuing to fall sharply is small.

In addition, the price difference between domestic and foreign markets is relatively high. Exports basically have a profit of about 700 yuan. If exports are really liberalized, the price difference between domestic and foreign markets will be repaired upward. However, the strength of the repair depends on the reaction of the futures market. Spot prices may be subject to actual policy restrictions, and the rebound space is relatively limited.